All,

On Friday, 2013-02-01 15:09:58 +0100,
Mirjam Kuehne <mir@ripe.net> wrote:
> We allocated the 1,000th /22 from the last /8. Please read more on
> RIPE Labs:
>
> https://labs.ripe.net/Members/ingrid/1000-slash-22s-allocated-from-last-sla[..]

Just so I understand...

  It took 140 days to allocate 1000 addresses, or about 7.14 address
  per day.

  There are 2^14 /22 in a /8, or 16384.

  At that burn rate, it will take about 2150 days to finish out the
  last /8.
      (16384 - 1000) / 7.14 = 2155

  That's about 6 years, assuming things stay constant.
      2155 / 365.25 = 5.9

Based on Google's numbers, IPv6 has roughly doubled as a percentage of
traffic for the last 3 years... if this continues for the next 6 years,
we'll have about 70% of traffic over IPv6 when the RIPE NCC really,
REALLY runs out of IPv4 in this region. (Of course, if it continues for
7 years then 140% of traffic will be over IPv6.) ;)

It looks like there's likely to be a window of time where new entrants
won't be able to get any IPv4 space, and a significant percentage of
users will still be IPv4-only.

Should we tweak the policy now to make it harder to get IPv4 address
space, or wait a few years? It seems slightly unfair to future entrants,
but the whole IPv4 allocation model has always vastly favored early
entrants, so perhaps we shouldn't worry about it yet.

Cheers,

--
Shane