Hi Philip (and all other recipients), These are interesting data - looking at the information on the web, it's remarkable also to see the change in the ratio of originating ASes to transit ASes in each of the regions. Note that over the past year, in the ARIN area the ratio of originating to transit has gone from about 3.25:1 (not an exact figure, perhaps someone could come up with the precise calculations) to around 9:1, whereas in the APNIC region this is approximately 4.75:1 -> 6:1, and in the RIPE region has moved from around 4.75:1 to 5:1. Whilst these are not precisely-calculated ratios at all, and there may be many reasons for this change, I would be interested in hearing what is behind this shift. Anecdotally, I think we are beginning to see a large increase in the number of enterprises (rather than ISPs) who are running BGP. Over the past couple of years, it's been worth pondering what exactly the effect will be when Internet connectivity becomes important enough to commercial organisations (other than a transit ISP) that many of them make decisions to take dual-homed connectivity, and obtain their own ASN in order to do this - there is certainly no great barrier which stops anyone from doing this. These organisations might only announce one prefix each as well. What the effects might be are uncertain, but one could think of the following: 1. Increase in the number of prefixes in the global BGP-table - a move from linear increase to exponential? What knock-on effects would this have on the way routing functions? I'll be interested to see what happens when the global table reaches 100,000... 2. Increase in the number of ASes in the Internet Routing Table. What are the statistics looking like here? Do we have an acceleration in growth here as well? If so, is there a risk of running out of ASNs in the BGP IPv4 routing-table? What do others see as possible explanations for the phenomenon? Thanks, Sam On Fri, 28 Jul 2000, Philip Smith wrote:

Hi folks,

I don't know if any of you have been paying much attention to the total size of the routing table, but its growth rate has started to accelerate since the start of the year. Since the 28th January we have added around 13500 prefixes (8000 of those were /24s).

This time last year the table had 62500 prefixes in it. 6 months later it had increased to 71000, and now it is at 84500. 5000 extra prefixes above linear growth.

- With a linear growth rate, the routing table will hit 100k prefixes around early March 2001.

- Assuming the accelerated growth rate we are seeing now, the routing table will reach 100K around about the end of December this year.

(I remember predicting at the Adelaide IETF that we'd hit 100k around September 2001 - based on the time period Mar99 to Mar00.)

An interesting landmark to look forward to...!

philip --

...

Delivered-To: lists-routing-wg-out@lists.ripe.net From: Routing Analysis <cscora@dev.apnic.net> Subject: RIPE NCC Region Weekly Routing Report Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2000 04:02:20 +1000 (EST) Reply-To: pfs@cisco.com To: routing-wg@ripe.net X-Mailer: fastmail [version 2.5 PL1] Sender: owner-routing-wg@ripe.net X-SMTP-HELO: postman.ripe.net X-SMTP-MAIL-FROM: owner-routing-wg@ripe.net X-SMAP-Received-From: outside X-SMTP-PEER-INFO: postman.ripe.net [193.0.0.199]

This is an automated weekly mailing sent to the RIPE Routing WG e-mail list describing the state of the Internet Routing Table in Europe, Middle East and North Africa. Daily listings are sent to bgp-stats@lists.apnic.net

For a graphical representation, please see http://www.apnic.net/stats/bgp.

If you have any comments please contact Philip Smith <pfs@cisco.com>.

Europe, Middle East, North Africa Report 28 Jul, 2000

Analysis Summary ----------------

BGP routing table entries examined: 84548 Origin ASes present in the Internet Routing Table: 8000 Origin ASes announcing only one prefix: 2671 Transit ASes present in the Internet Routing Table: 1122 Average AS path length visible in the Internet Routing Table: 5.2 Max AS path length visible: 15 Illegal AS announcements present in the Routing Table: 10 Non-routable prefixes present in the Routing Table: 0 Prefixes being announced from the IANA Reserved Address blocks: 0 Number of addresses announced to Internet: 1137699268 Equivalent to 67 /8s, 207 /16s and 233 /24s Percentage of available address space announced: 30.7 Percentage of allocated address space announced: 62.4 Percentage of available address space allocated: 49.2

RIPE Region Analysis Summary ----------------------------

Prefixes being announced by RIPE Region ASes: 13276 Prefixes being announced from the RIPE address blocks: 10341 RIPE Region origin ASes present in the Internet Routing Table: 2147 RIPE Region origin ASes announcing only one prefix: 1023 RIPE Region transit ASes present in the Internet Routing Table: 425 Average RIPE Region AS path length visible: 5.8 Max RIPE Region AS path length visible: 15 Number of RIPE addresses announced to Internet: 72185184 Equivalent to 4 /8s, 77 /16s and 117 /24s Percentage of available RIPE address space announced: 61.5

RIPE AS Blocks 1877 - 1901, 2042, 2047, 2107 - 2136, 2585 - 2614 2773 - 2822, 2830 - 2879, 3154 - 3353, 5377 - 5631 6656 - 6911, 8192 - 9215, 12288 - 13311, 15360 - 16383 RIPE Address Blocks 62/8, 193/8, 194/7, 212/7 and 217/8

RIPE Region per AS prefix count summary ---------------------------------------

ASN No of nets /19 equiv Description 3301 385 281 TeliaNet Sweden 1257 335 271 Swipnet AB 1270 257 341 UUNET Germany 1849 244 464 PIPEX 1275 185 962 DFN IP Service 786 182 959 JANET IP Service 702 181 218 UUNET Technologies, Inc. 1273 180 89 Cable & Wireless ECRC GmbH 719 178 145 LANLINK 5515 172 362 Sonera Finland 517 156 184 Xlink 3320 150 250 Deutsche Telekom AG 13019 134 20 RR-BRETAGNE Autonomous System 2856 132 271 BTnet UK Regional network 2609 126 4 EUnet-TN 9057 122 43 Level 3 public IP n 3303 120 286 Swisscom 3215 109 126 RAIN 1901 101 75 EUnet Austria

Global Per AS prefix count summary ----------------------------------

ASN No of nets /19 equiv Description 701 2091 3209 UUNET Technologies, Inc. 7046 963 504 UUNET Technologies, Inc. 1 893 4553 BBN Planet 1221 840 986 Telstra 2914 780 1426 Verio, Inc. 7018 749 3030 AT&T 705 747 32 UUNET Technologies, Inc. 1239 668 1622 Sprint ICM-Inria 3561 637 1573 Cable & Wireless USA 174 614 2839 PSINet Inc. 1785 525 826 Sprint ICM 3549 469 369 Frontier GlobalCenter 271 464 412 BCnet Backbone 2764 460 129 connect.com.au pty ltd 209 444 385 Qwest 3602 438 77 Sprint Canada 1740 436 607 CERFnet 4293 413 77 Cable & Wireless USA 3908 410 282 Supernet, Inc.

List of Illegal AS's (Global) -----------------------------

Bad AS Designation Network Transit AS Description 65534 PRIVATE 63.87.74.0/24 7046 UUNET Technologies, 65209 PRIVATE 63.233.140.0/22 209 Qwest 65209 PRIVATE 63.233.154.0/24 209 Qwest 64602 PRIVATE 63.236.57.0/24 209 Qwest 64601 PRIVATE 63.236.90.0/24 209 Qwest 64812 PRIVATE 163.247.69.0/24 6471 ENTEL CHILE S.A. 65132 PRIVATE 168.216.0.0/16 7473 SINGTEL-IX 65132 PRIVATE 193.5.123.0/24 7473 SINGTEL-IX 65000 PRIVATE 198.154.77.0/24 1959 Defense Information 64605 PRIVATE 208.47.206.0/24 209 Qwest

Number of prefixes announced per prefix length (Global) -------------------------------------------------------

/1:0 /2:0 /3:0 /4:0 /5:0 /6:0 /7:0 /8:21 /9:4 /10:5 /11:9 /12:26 /13:51 /14:170 /15:284 /16:6550 /17:874 /18:1772 /19:5627 /20:3412 /21:3618 /22:5397 /23:7223 /24:48900 /25:123 /26:159 /27:68 /28:46 /29:49 /30:84 /31:0 /32:76

End of report